01 May 2005

NROL-16/Mission B-30: How far is far?

There's an interesting story on the front page of the Telly today recounting the Titan debris impact from Friday night. Don waste time looking, it isn't online. *sigh*

Seems the fisheries patrol vessel Leonard J Cowley was approximately 100 nautical miles northeast of the Hibernia rig.

Thus, as I already suggested several days ago, the debris never came within 100 nautical miles of the platforms. That is exactly as the US Air Force predicted in their original impact map and estimates.

When you have as much experience as the Americans do in launching rockets and when there is a s much sensitivity to third party liability, it is pretty easy to why the fears expressed by some about debris impacts was unwarranted from the outset.

Maybe next time, someone will sell tickets to see the lightshow.

Two observations:

1. The Cowley was not underway at the time of the sighting, suggesting to me that she had been sent out specifically to monitor the launch. If not, then the skipper decided to take advantage of his location to watch the light show.

2. The debris impact is reported by this source to have been over 100 nautical miles away from the offshore production platforms. While I have heard one account that claimed the debris was only a handful of miles away, this is obviously a faulty report.

Sound travels really well on the ocean and at night. Therefore, it is easy for an inexperienced observer to make some bad guesses as to distances.